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OptimisticBear: Episodes

In this week’s episode we discuss why most commentators have it backwards in blaming the market downturn on the S&P US debt downgrade.  The S&P downgrade occurred BECAUSE the general economic mood is becoming more bearish instead of the reverse. The markets would have crashed anyway even if ...
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In this episode we talk about how the ranks of Bears are being continuously depleted. Even Tim Ellis, the creator of SeattleBubble, has now bought a home. Are the Optimistic Bear and friends the only true bears yet living? Of course, the increasing levels of bullishness simply provide MORE reason for ...
In this episode we discuss how the rash of tech IPOs and wild valuations are eerily similar to previous tech bubbles. Credit problems have only been swept under the carpet (evidenced by the fact that the US government now backs 90% of all mortgages) yet we see speculation rampant. We also talk about ...
In this week’s episode we discuss how there isn’t a single school of economics that explains the modern phenomena of credit deflation. According to traditional economics theories the prices of goods and services will rise when the volume of money increases. However, we have seen cases in the last ...
In this episode we discuss the crash in the commodity markets and the amazing correlation which is occurring across almost all asset classes. Even BitCoin has been blowing another bubble. This correlation between assets, causing everything to move in lock-step, has made diversification almost impossible ...
In this episode Moses Kim explains that the rising prices in commodities and precious metals show that the US will be living in an inflationary environment for a long time to come. The massive US government debt and lack of economic competitiveness further ensure that the American dollar is only going ...
In this episode we discuss how recent market volatility could have a bearish portent and how markets that keep rising for long periods without a significant correction are fragile. We examine how the rising price of oil could be viewed as either bullish or bearish for the future of crude prices. [...]
In this episode we talk about how financial hedging can actually lead to bigger risks by encouraging imprudent behavior and endowing a false sense of security. The whole AIG debacle proved you can’t always rely on insurance (which is what hedging is, after all). Try as one might, it is simply not possible ...
In this episode Brad Rundbaken explains how commodity prices are the canary in the coal-mine pointing to the rising inflationary pressures resulting from all the stimulus and bail-outs. Changing cycles in weather patterns are also exacerbating pricing pressures on food stuffs. Conveniently, policy makers ...
In this episode Patrick Killelea explains how the US health care reform legislation actually provides incentive for insurance providers to charge even more. Restrictions on the amount of profit that can be made make it attractive to pay more for care and treatment to ensure a higher over-all bill. ...
In this episode we discuss the idea that societies, and economies, are governed by both short and very long cycles of social mood and sentiment. If this theory of cycles (like those proposed by Kondratieff) are correct, then there is very little policy makers can do one way or the other to change economic ...
In this episode Steve Keen shares his knowledge of economics to not only debunk the reverence paid to economists by policy makers but to explain that the titans of the economic theory are misunderstood. Keynes wasn’t the advocate for stimulus spending as many assume and Karl Marx actually had a lot ...
In this episode we discuss how Iceland’s decision to simply allow its banks to go bust may have been the wiser choice. Iceland’s economy is now growing again and the economy is re-setting itself. By contrast, nations like Ireland and Greece are taking on even MORE debt (in the form of bail-outs) ...
In this episode Robert Gignac offers advice on financial planning. Be careful to choose financial advisors who don’t have an vested interest in selling particular products. It is also important to find advice from people who really explain the various products and options without assuming that consumers ...
In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National ...
In this episode Alan Hall explains how factionalism and authoritarianism always increase during the negative move of bear markets. As people become more fearful they look to leaders who will protect them and gladly accept greater limits to their freedoms. Alan’s in-depth socionomics study on authoritarianism ...
In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to ...
In this episode special guest Jim Mosquera explains how the financial crisis has barely even begun and that massive deflation lies ahead. By explaining how money and credit work Jim outlines what caused the financial crisis and why policy makers are powerless to prevent even greater collapses in asset ...
In this episode we talk about how government subsidies have created a bubble in education that is eerily similar to what happened with housing. Prices are rising and unscrupulous lenders are pushing government backed loans for dubious educations. We also ask whether the financial statements of CitiGroup ...
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