EDC Weekly Commentary by Peter Hall: Episodes
Few believe that the standard New Year greeting applies to things economic. The shellshock of last fall’s seismic financial and economic shifts has worn off, and turned into abject pessimism about the near-term future. Bleak stuff to start the year with. What should we be prepared for?
Still not convinced there’s a serious global economic slowdown in the works? Look no further than actions by key central banks in the last few days. By any measure, interest rate reductions were huge, a needed boost to the economy. But they also suggest more bad news to come.
Recent pessimism has created a “flat is the new up” mentality in the economy. With the wrecking ball of recession battering the world economy, talk of growth has all but disappeared, and its mention seems to generate either wistful thinking or a cynical smirk. Even so, growth opportunities do exist ...
The adage “one month does not a trend make” was shattered in October. The speed of change in key economic indicators was breathtaking, and wasn’t confined to single economies, industries or ideologies. Analysts’ views on the economy’s near-term path, disparate just weeks ago, now vary only ...
There have been many predictions about where the credit crunch would end, all of which have proven to be overly optimistic. Today, the honest answers range from "It depends" to "I don't know".
Just when we thought we were running out of superlatives to describe it, China’s economy has hit a snag. Growth has slowed sharply, silencing all who proclaimed China’s immunity to the global slowdown mere months ago. Many inside this modern economic sensation have experienced little of the dynamics ...
Up’ isn’t a word that describes much in the American economy at the moment. Housing is down, the stock market is down, liquidity is down, and more recently, national output itself is down. And in a rapid reversal, even inflation is down. So why is the U.S. dollar currently on a big tear?
Looking out the window isn’t much fun these days. It’s mighty stormy in the global economy, and every day seems a bit wilder. Getting a read on any storm is always tough at ground zero. But even the satellite scan is hard to interpret in today’s super-storm. What does the forecast call for?
News media must be ecstatic. In recent weeks, hardly a day has gone by but some major new event has hit the street. Bailouts, bankruptcies, stock market volatility and commodity prices in freefall have almost become commonplace, spurring a frenzied search for superlatives that adequately capture the ...
In any economic slowdown, big-ticket purchases are the first target of penny-pinching consumers. Auto producers know this well, and are feeling the squeeze. Sales are down sharply in the US, by far the world’s largest auto market, raising serious questions about the industry’s prospects.
A few weeks ago, the prognosis for Japan’s economy was not good – most analysts were convinced the nation was already in recession. But investors have swiftly turned bullish on the economy, and the yen has surged by 6% in the past few days. Is Japan suddenly a good bet?
Everybody knows that Canada is a trading nation. Compare the share of trade to total economic output, and Canada ranks close to the top among large industrialized economies. But take away trade with our number one customer, the U.S. economy, and we’re not much of a trading nation at all. In fact, we ...
It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis.
Energy security led the agenda at last week's XVIII Economic Forum of Central Europe, held in Krynica, Poland. Interest in the topic is not new, but the rise in energy costs over the past year has injected a new sense of urgency into the dialogue.
No discussion of the world’s potential economic powerhouses is complete without mention of Brazil. Recent exciting changes are enabling Brazil to harness that potential more effectively, and the world’s economies are lining up for a piece of the action. Is Canada among the eager suitors?
Shipping has been a great barometer of the recent explosion of trade across the planet. Ocean-going carriers have been pushed close to the limit to accommodate vastly increased traffic. But the economic seas have become more stormy, and the shipping industry is feeling the effects.
It’s the last thing anyone would expect when we’re all bracing for slowdown. But surging food and energy prices put inflation high on the list of economic worries earlier this year. World prices for food and energy have since slipped back, but inflation fears remain. Will those fears dissipate?
The story is getting all too familiar: yet another economy joining the ranks of those succumbing to the slowdown that began in the large economies. Scoping the reach of the slowdown has turned a lot of attention to bellwether trading economies in the Asia-Pacific zone. In this context, recent softening ...
Metals making the headlines at the moment are bronze, silver and gold. As awards, these metals are a standout. But none of them did particularly well in economics class. That honour goes to copper, the metal that didn’t just excel, but earned a PhD. Over the years, it has tracked movements in the global ...
With just a day to go, all eyes are on Beijing as the world anticipates the 29th modern Olympiad. Excitement over these Games has steadily built, and meticulous preparations mark a thrilling coming of age for the Chinese economy. Billions have been spent on the event, prompting some to predict a post-party ...